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Jun 22, 2006 —
The Senate and House are divided on plans to ban gay
marriage in the state Constitution, and the long-term
political ramifications of their efforts could be huge.
If the chambers agree on a plan soon, it could sway the
election for the next U.S. president, analysts and critics
say.
The Senate approved the latest version of a proposed
constitutional amendment Wednesday by a vote of 38-12. It
kicks back to the House, which approved a different version
two weeks ago.
The chambers disagree on whether the Constitution should
ban civil unions, which are legal arrangements that allow
same-sex partners in some states to share benefits as a
couple. The House version approved two weeks ago would ban
civil unions, but the Senate version would not.
Sen. Mike Waugh, R-Shrewsbury, and all other senators
representing parts of York County voted for the Senate bill.
The next presidential race could be affected because any
plan to amend the Constitution must be ratified in a voter
referendum, and timely approval in the Legislature would put
it on course for a referendum in 2007 or 2008.
A November 2008 referendum would likely draw throngs of
conservative voters to the polls, and the Republican
presidential nominee would surely benefit.
Because Pennsylvania has 21 coveted electoral votes -
enough to swing a close election -the state's gay marriage
debate has the potential to blow into a major national story,
Harrisburg-based pollster Mike Young said.
"If I was betting, I would bet that's what they do," Young
said of the potential for a referendum in November 2008.
The effect of a 2004 gay-union referendum in Ohio has been
debated in political circles since the state sealed George W.
Bush's re-election. Ohioans approved a constitutional
amendment expanding its gay-marriage ban, and Bush carried the
state's 20 electoral votes.
Republicans are eager to put Pennsylvania in the red column
after Al Gore and John Kerry carried the state in 2000 and
2004, but GOP supporters of the constitutional amendment here
say they are not trying to influence the presidential race.
Some Democrats are already worried about it.
"Absolutely, that's in the back of all our minds," said
Rep. Stephen Stetler, D-York, an outspoken critic of the
gay-marriage ban.
Waugh said there was no discussion in the Republican caucus
meeting Wednesday of moving the bill for the presidential
election, though he admitted there is "a really good
possibility" it hits the ballot at the same time.
Waugh said he backed the bill because most of his
constituents support it, and he likes the idea of letting
voters decide to ratify it.
Though a 1996 state law already bans same-sex marriage in
Pennsylvania, supporters of a constitutional amendment say it
would help ensure the courts don't overturn the ban.
By passing a new version Wednesday, the Senate puts
pressure on the House to act quickly if a referendum is to
stay on course for 2007 or 2008.
To win initial approval this year, the chambers must agree
before their summer recess because of a legal advertising
requirement. Even though the referendum would not go on the
ballot this year, initial passage must be advertised 90 days
before the November general election.
AT A GLANCE
Recent Pennsylvania presidential results:
2004
· John Kerry (D): 2,938,095 votes
· George W. Bush (R): 2,793,847 votes
2000
· Al Gore (D): 2,485,967 votes
· George W. Bush (R): 2,281,127 votes
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